31.Aug.2011 Sacramento State @ Oregon State (Pre-game)
It's difficult to understand why Paul Buker & Co. are spinning Sacramento State as a threat.
Oh wait, no it isn't. They need to sell ad space.
You know what's great about running an ad-free blog? I don't care about anything, and I answer to nobody! Time for some non-controversial, non-ad-selling real talk: Beavs win this game by twenty.
The following are arguments for a possible Hornet's upset:
The Beavers are shorthanded.
The Hornets passed for a billion yards versus their last seven opponents.
The Hornets are ranked #25 in FCS.
Let's look at these individually.
- The Beavers are shorthanded–Yes, yes they are, but this argument assumes the backups are either incapable or worse than Sacramento State's starters, neither of which is true. If they were bad players they'd be playing in the FCS.
- The Hornets have a passing attack–Yes, yes they do, and they ran up numbers versus their last seven opponents, a prestigious list consisting of powerhouses Montana State, Northern Colorado, Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, Portland State, Idaho State, and UC Davis. Enough said.
- The Hornets are ranked #25 in FCS. Being ranked #25 in FCS is not the same, or even similar, to being ranked #25 in FBS. Take a look at the teams ranked above Sacramento State:
17. New Hampshire
20. Stephen F. Austin
21. Southern Utah
22. Eastern Kentucky
23. McNeese State
24. Western Illinois
There isn't a respectable opponent on the list until #13, Cal Poly. Sac State is 0-3 all-time versus the Pac-10, and in those games they've been outscored 133-27 for a Delta of -106. Ouch. Incidentally, Oregon State put a 40-7 beating on them in 2003 (Cal and Stanford hold the other two Pac-10 victories).
So, in short, I am not too worried about this game. A discussion about the point spread (27.5) would make for a better debate. Personally, I think injuries and freshman jitters prevent them from covering.