I thought this was a win in the pre-season, and I’m going to stick with that after a lot of thought about this game. I’m definitely more concerned after seeing the Beavs are mentally immature and still can’t compete for a full 60 minutes. But on the flipside, Smith didn’t make any stupid 4th down calls, and he had the opportunity to do so.

I think the Beavs depth, especially at RB where we can bring in legit 5 backs and wear down Fresno, is the ultimate difference. Nolan is better, as expected, so we should use the pass but maybe more to set up the run. If we don’t run at least equally and instead get pass happy, I think we lose. I’m going to assume the coaches are smart enough to know that, which is a pretty big assumption given Lindgren’s track record, but it is a new year, so I’ll give him the benefit until proven otherwise.

Final prediction: Beavs 31-24

I’m not sure yet, but I’m leaning towards changing and taking Fresno St in this one. Reason being is the Beavs still showed the same problem of thinking they are better than they are and taking half the game off. That won’t work on the road vs Fresno.

Early prediction: Fresno 31, Beavs 20

Subject to change game day.

Go Beavs

31-24 good guys.

It’s sadly time to stop discussing trannies and penixes and instead to focus on da Beavs. Here’s my game by game breakdown.

Boise St – W
Fresno St – W
Montanta St – W
USC – W
Utah – W
Stanford – L
Washington St – L
Colorado – W
Washington – W (and a broken Penix)
Cal – W
Arizona St – L
Oregon – W

So I have the Beavs breaking through this year with a 9-3 record. Last year I was spot on with a 7 win bowl team. Smith of course is the wildcard again this year. If he goes for 4th downs at the same pace, I think he costs us at least one game. Last year that figure was 1 game per the math, but if you watched the games it was at least 2. This year I do think he has slightly better talent so maybe one or two of those 4th downs go our way this year that didn’t last year.

Something else I’m going to be looking for is the Beavs finally winning those “if only he made that catch” and “if only he actually caught that interception instead of batting down the ball” type plays. I feel like we finally have the players in the system to complete plays. Those plays are the difference in games, and thus they become the difference in seasons.

Possible outcomes +/- 2 games due to Smith and the “if only” plays. In other words, I have the range of outcomes as 7-5 to 11-1, so I’m settling at 9-3. The brutal (and key) part of the schedule is Utah, Stanford, Washington St. On the road at Utah = physical game. Then they have to go play Stanford on the road. Physical game. So I think that makes Stanford a definite loss. Same reason I think Washington St is a loss. They likely won’t be recovered from that rough stretch until the following week. It makes winning the first 5 games key to the season. Falter there and again we could be looking at that lower end of 7-5 or so.

Let’s hear your predictions, etc.

Another Fall camp is upon us.  This might be the least tuned in I’ve been during a summer off-season, so I really don’t know what to expect out of this group this year.

On Offense:

Returning QB (but may have already hit his ceiling)
Replacing a couple OL
Replacing RB1
Most productive WRs are returning.
Replacing TQ

On Defense:

DL should be stronger
DBs should be stronger
Replacing ILB1
OLB should be stronger
New DC

What are you hoping to see out of this camp?  What are your expectations for the season?

Also, sounds like we should have a few more verbal commits in the month of August.

I’m hoping to enjoy another month of Summer before really getting into football season. Hope that’s not OSU’s approach.

Go Beavs!