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Negative Recruiting

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Negative sociopolitical ads have always been effective, from the wars on terror to tobacco and every Presidential campaign throughout history. As the 2012 election nears, we're seeing more negative ads, even from Ron Paul, who until recently had run a classy campaign and taken the high road. While watching the Iowa Caucus last night, I couldn't help but wonder how recruiting voters parallels recruiting players.

On the subject of negative campaigning, William S. Bike writes:

According to Dean Michael Mezey of DePaul University, … what negative advertising does is get your supporters committed and excited. Those who are indifferent are so turned off that they are less likely to vote, as are people who are for the other candidate–so not only does it help you, but it depresses turnout. The ideal, rational goal is to turn out your most committed supporters and make sure nobody else turns out.

1. "What negative advertising does is get your supporters committed and excited."

Empirically, I'd say this is true. When a wish-washy recruit comes back from Cal or Washington, whose coaches are known negative recruiters, they seem more into the cause than ever.

2. "So not only does it help you, but it depresses turnout."

Again, it seems true. We often see recruits cancel all remaining visits after committing to a known negative recruiter.

Here's an interesting bit by Jon Solomon of the Birmingham News:

Going negative in recruiting resembles going negative in political campaigns. Facts or half-truths are selectively highlighted to create an unflattering narrative of the rival, turning some recruiting and political campaigns into plays on people's fears.

It's the ugly underbelly of college football recruiting, the topic coaches publicly deny occurs but acknowledge privately. Fans want to believe the other coach negatively recruits and not theirs, "but it happens all the time to some degree," former Auburn coach Terry Bowden said.

"There's a point where it's accepted and even humorous. There's a point where it gets to be mean-spirited and unethical."

Negative recruiting occurs when coaches tell prospective athletes and their parents negative things about other coaches and schools that are also trying to recruit that athlete. What constitutes negative recruiting to those under attack might be justified as the truth by the person firing the shot.

"Everybody knows what negative recruiting looks like," Bowden said. "They don't have to read a book to know what it is. The good guys know when to stop, and the sorry guys don't know how to stop."

Gadsden City High School coach Joe Billingsley defines negative recruiting as "challenging the program and character of the other university."

Billingsley said his former star linebacker Jerrell Harris chose Alabama last year in large part because Crimson Tide coaches talked about their school, not others.

The last sentence is particularly interesting. I feel like Beaver fans will argue, "We want players who want to be Beavers for the right reasons" (mainly because that is the type of player they get). Yeah, I want that, too, but more than that I want great players. Sure, some recruits will sign because of honesty and a coach talking about their school's positives. No doubt. But on a 17 or 18 year old recruit, what do you think would, generally speaking, work better: pointing out why University X is a career-ending path, or highlighting University Y's strong points?

When I was 17, a military recruiter showed up at my high school. He asked what interested me. I told him. He tried to bend the Army's message to meet what I said. When he saw it wasn't working, he said things like, "You will have no future if you choose path XYZ, it is impractical. In the Army you learn real skills." Etc. Point being, his fear mongering was pretty powerful. No, I didn't go that route, but had I more physical strength and less confidence in my mind, I very well might have.

Even as adults negativity it is a powerful thing. Ron Paul was leading the Iowa Caucus until the media portrayed him as a guy unwilling to (preemptively) start a war with Iran. Remember the 2004 election, with George Bush claiming "I am a war time President"? Again, fear gripping people. If a school like Washington tells a recruit, "OSU is a racist farm town…you'll never get on TV or make the NFL" etc, will the recruit have enough savvy or desire to fact check?

The short of it is this: Given the positive results of negative political campaigns and recruiting, do you feel Mike Riley (and staff's) aversion to such tactics is plus or minus on signing day?

DT Rumors?

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Happy New Year, Beavlettes. Murphy's Law, Law of Averages, et al say it can't be worse than 2011. Right?

Hearing all kinds of things on the DT front. These are the interesting/likely ones:

1. Salt having second thoughts…still hasn't signed with Florida. (Long shot. He basically said he didn't like Corvallis).

2. JC DT Zian Jones interested in the Beavs, possibly even a commit.

I don't know much about Jones. Here's his film: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTMVHOdqmS4

Basketball: Oregon State @ Washington State

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Not much of a writeup today given the early tip (3pm local).

I'm going to be out cycling with the lady, so check out OrangeExpress for an in depth analysis (though it looks like JackBeav is busy, too).

Areas that need improvement are obvious:

1. Interior D/boxing out. (Easy to fix. Just give max effort and stop being lazy).

2. Free throws (Hard to fix. Requires recalibration of space/geometry and muscle memory).

Max effort today, guys. Salvage the road trip.

Isaac Seumalo Proposition

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I can't think of any precedent for this, but what if Riley asks Isaac Seumalo to play DT for one season, then move to OG (where everyone feels he's an NFL prospect) for his final three seasons? They could spend the spring/summer of his sophomore year making the transition. In the meantime, it would buy time to recruit DTs and build up the ones on the roster.

This class would actually be great (one of the best in OSU history) if Seumalo and Josh Mitchell convert to DT. Still need one JC DT in tha scenario.

Anyway, a creative solution that I figured I'd throw out there given the circumstances.

Basketball: Oregon State @ Washington

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This should be a great game. Both teams like to run and have the athletes to do it. Both teams have some size, too. Washington gets healthier, with Aziz N’Diaye coming back tonight. He's a decent big, and I'm curious to see how the Beavs can (or can't) handle him. My guess is Eric Moreland will see plenty of minutes tonight and blanket N’Diaye, with Joe Burton's mass moving over for help inside when necessary.

In the past, it went without saying that Washington was more talented. This year, it's a tougher call. If the Beavers can play fast, drive the lane, and make kick-out threes, then they'll be in this game. Jared Cunningham has become a leader off the court, and we're seeing that parlay into extraordinary team chemistry on it. Washington has more obvious NBA talent. So, does talent trump chemistry or visa versa?

Tough call.

Washington is going to be pumped for a home conference opener. Beavs will get their best effort, which is unfortunate in the sense that we all like easy wins, but it's a great gauge as to how good this vintage truly is. And everyone's curious to find that out, right? Was the non-con a charade, or are they legit? Personal opinion: they will play with everyone in the conference and be in every game. Whether they win or not…

And that's exactly how I feel about this matchup. Should be a one or two possession game. In close games, you should take the home team, but I love the Beavs confidence and chemistry heading into this game. Robinson is saying all the right things, and the guys play for one another. So I'm going against wisdom and taking OSU by a bucket and crossing my fingers that (a) they make their free throws, and (b) the Huskies don't get too much home cookin'.

79-77 Beavs

See http://orangeexpress.wordpress.com/ for JackBeav's take.