Home Academics College Enrollment Decline

College Enrollment Decline

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My lady’s alma mater today announced they might have to close the school due to declining enrollment and mismanagement of funds.

I just wanted to reiterate the college loan bubble, which I wrote about beginning to pop in 2012, is popping in grander terms. Enrollment was down for an 8th straight year in 2019. I guess students have had enough of greedy professors, admins, etc, and are going to give the real world a shot. No better time than now to teach yourself online so it makes sense.

What does this mean for college sports?

My feeling is people will either stop watching college sports, or they will hitch their wagon to a random school that wins a lot. Neither is great.

102 COMMENTS

  1. I often ask myself if it was worth going to college(community+OSU) when my job doesn’t technically require it.

    I took on a lot of debt to gain singificant, but tangental, skills.

    • I think a degree is only worth it if your field requires it. Else you can teach yourself almost anything online (or back in the day at a library). Some jobs want to see the paper; then you have to go and get it. It also depends how much value you put on the experience. That would make it worthwhile to many. At current prices it’s hard to justify any of that, though. It’s giving rise to the entrepreneur, even if it’s a kid starting a YouTube channel or something. This is good in many ways if people can turn their passion into income.

      • But this is also causing the U.S. to lose ground against other countries. More and more kids are trying to find their income source in entertainment and social media which aren’t critical services. This would be fine if we had enough robots to provide all the critical services for society, but we are a long way from that. If we don’t get more kids to learn vocational trades, science, engineering, medicine, teaching, etc we’re going to be in serious trouble as a country.

      • I’ve seen jobs where you don’t need a degree and usually the people that get the promotions into more senior roles are the ones with degrees.

    • I’d bet this is 90% of the decline. There will always be entrepreneurs but a college degree is important to reach max income potential for the majority of people… especially in today’s economy. There’s always the exception but IMO the difference between someone with a degree vs no degree is huge for most professions. That said, there is a huge gap in the trade industry and I could see a steep rise in 2 year specialized educations

    • Yeah, that was my first thought too, that people are making good money without college so they skip it. The economic expansion is getting long in the tooth and our options for staving off the next recession are limited by the current state of irresponsible fiscal and monetary policy. A school like OSU that offers a somewhat reasonably priced degree in some fairly decent paying fields could well be setup to thrive in the next recession… Or at least solidly weather the storm.

      • It’s true, people are making good money without that college degree. My nieces husband is making $100k a year doing electrician work in Portland and the company paid for all his vocational classes… I don’t make quite that much($65k ayear) with no college working in a sawmill.would I like to make more? Sure but I’m not gonna go in debt to do it.

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    The biggest college sport will be E-sports online. No need for real stadiums or travel. Just people watching other people play video games

      • It blows my mind that you can make a living (a pretty good one) by playing video games. There is so much money in the entertainment industry, and all of that money comes from consumers indirectly. But as fewer people enter the labor and trade markets, who will make the products that are being consumed? It can’t be sustainable.

      • There already is corruption in e-sports; plenty of articles through the years regarding mistreatment of players by management, not honoring terms of agreement in contracts, players committing suicide, etc.

    • There’s a lot of hype around esports, but there are way more people losing money in it than making money.

      The appeal of esports is similar to the appeal of watching physical sports: you’re watching other people play the same games you do, only they’re much better at it than you are. It’s a sad reflection of what society values when you see how difficult it can be for kids to get access to playing physical sports, when it’s much much easier for them to access video games.

      Pro sports leagues would do well to pump more money into their community outreach programs that encourage kids to play their respective sports before they lose their fanbases. Sadly, most of the owners aren’t thinking a generation out, so they probably won’t.

  3. What about the life experiences gained while on college such as learning to pay some bills, living in your own, but still have a somewhat safe/stable environment? I know there can be some negative experiences for college attendees too.

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      Ah yes, ‘the college experience.’

      I have two teens:
      One graduated two years ago, works for me because he’s got anxiety and depression, can’t commit to a career path and the thought of consuming a shitload of debt is a huge burden he can’t fathom.

      My daughter is a HS senior, consumed with going to college, no matter the cost–to us, or herself–and having the college experience! It’s a refrain I hear from her peers as well.

      As a parent, it’s a lot to navigate.

    • Most of that you can get living on your own and working. Parents can help financially if they want to cushion the blow and give a more safe/stable environment.

      • I disagree. When you are in college you are guaranteed to find like minded people in similar places in their lives. There is a great support system unless you stay in your dorm room all day.

      • And going to college helps you learn about finance, basic writing, etc. You don’t get that from living on your own. You miss out on foundational/core classes that are helpful for life.

        • You shouldn’t have to take on massive debt to learn finance and basic writing. You can easily learn both for free on the internet (and really motivated HS kids can learn these before they graduate).

          • Yeah. I taught myself pretty advanced economics just using YT. Took one class in college but learned way more on YT.

            Writing you should learn around grade 1 onward.

          • @Beav in DE, they were basic examples. There are many other tangible and intangibles you learn through college experience in my opinion. I went to college to so I guess I don’t know where I’d be had I not. Would I still have worked hard? Yes. Really motivated hs kids will be in college courses while in high school. So wouldn’t they continue to take college courses and finish their last 3 or so years of classes? A lot cheaper to get college courses done while in high school too. This is a great way to get a better value for your education.

  4. Enrollment might be down but the value of a degree isn’t. Not sure I could hire someone who said they were self taught online. How would they prove their skills to me? It would be pretty limited fields for self taught. And the general mindset is that people with degrees are safer choices.

    For college sports, it’ll be tougher to raise money without the emotional attachment to schools. Outside donors will only want to be attached to winners.

    For OSU, they should encourage more students into the entrepreneurial program. Seed companies and hope they grow into sizable winners and cash out.

    With OSU enrollment increasing quite a bit in the last 20 years, there are going to be a lot of OSU grads out there. If Smith can get some winning seasons, the program could reap some long term benefits due to the large enrollment currently. I think it’s over 30k right now.

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      What if someone has a degree and is also self taught — do you look down on them as well?

      I’d argue someone self-taught shows move drive. Way harder to teach yourself a skill then follow someone’s lead.

        • My uncle invented a machine for Amazon. He asked me about becoming a professional engineer, it is incredibly difficult to do without a formal education. He saved a company tens of millions of dollars but lack of credentials still caps his upside there.

      • I don’t look down on them. I’m like most people and don’t work in the field I have a degree in but my job requires a similar technical background. You might say I was self taught for my current job but I learned those new skills in prior jobs and got the current job because I demonstrated them in a work environment.

        But if you decided not to go to college, how do you prove your self taught skills without significant work experience? I would say my comments pertain to mostly white collar jobs.

        • To comment on Bill’s notion re: a degree from a slightly different angle:

          There are people who have chosen to enroll in college with the intent to earn a degree, then discover their school was not properly ACCREDITED in that field.

          Which is not to say that being self-taught, apprenticed, etc means you are underqualified or will be unsuccessful in your interest; it simply acknowledges there are base lines that ppl expect — and this expectation is not limited to just particular white collar jobs.

        • To comment on Bill’s notion re: a degree from a slightly different angle:

          There are people who have chosen to enroll in college with the intent to earn a degree, then discover their school was not properly ACCREDITED in that field.

          Which is not to say that being self-taught, apprenticed, etc means you are underqualified or will be unsuccessful in your interest; it simply acknowledges there are base lines that ppl expect — and this expectation is not limited to just white collar jobs.

  5. Sucks to be 2-2 in baseball after a very winnable game got away vs BYU. But there are only 3 teams with winning records in the Pac 12 so we’re not falling behind.

    Preseason Pac-12 favorite ASU is 2-3
    Preseason Pac-12 #2 Arizona is 3-1, with 3 wins against something called Albany, and a loss to Minnesota
    Preseason Pac-12 #3 Stanford is 1-3
    quacks are 0-4
    really only UCLA is off to a good start at 4-0

  6. I would venture to say e-campuses and online degrees are the future of education. It’s the most economical method of teaching and it truthfully should drive down the cost of education. The student to professor ratio can significantly increase. Students can learn at their own pace, don’t have to commute or live on campus which makes it easier to have a job while going to school. But of course, with e-campuses you lose the personal interactions with other students, and I’m guessing e-students don’t feel as much loyalty to a college’s athletic teams. So that will further drive in the dagger to college sports.

  7. I noticed there has been a lot of good commenting about college degrees (or not), with comments about going to college and/or taking college courses in high school. One thing to consider is the significant need for good people in the trades. Many high school students are not interested in college and a number of these are very interested in trades where they can get into a hands-on environment and make a good living. In Lane County, there has been a considerable amount of “school to work” activity between the high schools and the trades. The kids who are willing to work (and will show up on time, etc.) can start in apprentice programs and get paid for doing so. Some will drop out, others will complete the program and become journeymen, and others will end up with their own business. The latter group will probably take courses to gain the skills they need for their business. On-line will be useful here, and community colleges provide night courses. I’ve been pleased to see this trend recently.

    • Was going to post something along this line. I’m in the trades and we cant find people for $30+ an hour jobs. And the ones that pass resume screening, piss hot or just dont show for interviews. Its amazing how the younger generation doesnt want work.

        • Ya thoughts exactly, I run a small biz, and if I had to cut due to a piss test positive for weed, I’d have no workers. Granted I’m not government or contacting with them. It’s legal now so it’s going to show up more imo.

        • We like gov money, we play gov games. I personally dont care what people do in the privacy of their own homes, but I sure as shit dont want them on the job site talented or not. One fuck up and I’m dead, or hundreds of other people could potentially be killed.

          • yeah, that makes sense, contract with the government you got to play by their rules. I agree I wouldn’t want someone high at work but weed is in your system a long time. Plenty of people use it on the weekend and are fine all week.

        • That’s a pretty ignorant statement. Plenty of employers have to play by federal rules by doing business in multiple states. There’s more to it than just not doing “government contracts”. Ever looked into a commercial drivers license and the rules and regulations?

          • I agree, it’s alot more than gov. Contracts. My employer does business in 7 states and 1facility Canada. Some of these states don’t have the legal weed yet. The company gets their insurance needs taken care of from insurers in those state. It saves them a considerable amount to insure the company if they can say we are completely drug free. As a part of the ins. Contracts they have we get random piss tests to prove we are drug free.

      • My employer is having this very issue! Very few potential employees can pass the piss test and the ones that do get hired but rarely make it past the 60day probationary period because they really don’t want to work. It really amazes me how little drive to work the 18-30 year olds have. I couldn’t imagine getting a job then showings up, to just try to do the bare minimum. What happened to self respect and that desire to do the best you can?

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          I haven’t run into young people with the lack of drive you describe. From the way you make it sound it is rather disappointing. But on the flip side I think it is tough to blame them. Their parents lost jobs and pensions due to mergers and cost cutting moves. When labor is treated like a commodity people tend to do just enough to not get fired.

          • From what I see at work, it is disappointing. The daughters BF wanted a job there and I really hesitated to pull my strings to get him hired because I’d never seen him at his old job.i got his word that he’d do his best and it worked out. Then the daughter wanted a job there too and she knows I’ll kick her ass if she gets fired for be lazy. So I got her hired too. BTW they put the daughter & BF in separate plants from each other and me. Basically that’s how we’ve been getting new hires that last, they’re either related to or know someone that works there and can vouch for them.

          • My general rule when pulling strings to get someone hired is that I tell them “I got you this job. It’s up to you to keep it. I will not help or intervene for you beyond this point”.

        • Our biggest problem was the amount of time we spent trying to get good applicants only to have them flake out or fail pee tests.
          So now we have a 100 question aptitude test then a pee test before your even get an interview.

  8. I went to college because my original field of work required it (Education), but I did it on the cheap. Two years of free community college on a journalism scholarship and three and a half years of school and working nights. I left college with about 2k in Pell Grants that I paid off fairly quickly. I didn’t end up staying in education, so I didn’t pursue a master’s. That would have added to my debt load. I have a relative who earned a sociology degree from a private school and I think she left with 40k in debt and a starting job that paid 40k a year.

  9. Oregonian stupidly pumping Men’s Hoops with article debating whether it will be the NCAA Tournament or NIT for the team. Says depends on if team can find its shooting touch.

    https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2020/02/oregon-state-in-the-ncaa-tournament-or-nit-it-depends-on-whether-the-beavers-can-figure-out-their-three-point-shooting-slump.html

    Try neither. Team is on trajectory for CBI with a 20-25% shot at NIT if they win a game or two more and advance past first round of Pac-12 Tourney. I expect them to more likely than not lose their 1st game in Las Vegas and then they’ll pass on CBI and that will be it.

    At that point Barnes should relieve Tinkle and start a search for a coach that wants to change the culture into a team that expects to make the NIT or better every year.

  10. OT: Anyone here going to the “Beaver Combine?” I see its scheduled for the 28th and open to the public. I’ll be curious to see the speed at receiver next year. While there’s no height returning, there should be speed across the unit that makes them difficult to cover.

  11. “My feeling is people will either stop watching college sports, or they will hitch their wagon to a random school that wins a lot. Neither is great.”

    Well, is it not great? The overall product doesn’t justify the attention it gets. I don’t know about “random schools,” but maybe more pro sport viewing? Especially with the pro game being willing to incorporate running QBs more than it used to; it has some college aspect to it.

    I have to think part of the issue as well is an upcoming population that cares less about spending 3+ hours to watch football. My dad and friends’ dads might watch more than one NFL game on sundays, just as a way of relaxing. Personally, I find that difficult to do on a weekly basis.

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    I’m afraid with the decline in enrollment, the country will suffer serious shortages in the critical fields of lesbian and transgender studies. Right now we are the world leaders in this technology, but for how long?

  13. McKalk, I used some grants as well. I forget which ones, but some where academic, and Pell sounds familiar. I got two degrees (computer science and natural sciences a minor) for about 30k, so it seems like an okay price. Paid off my loans in full after two years on a starting salary in the 50k range. I feel lucky to have done this before the bubble. If I got the same degrees now it would probably be 80k. You can learn computer science on YT or via books. That field, in general, doesn’t care about degree too much so long as you can present a portfolio. Natural sciences you need a degree to work in the field. So some fields the degree still matters. If hiring I’d personally look for people who were outside the box and took non-traditional paths. Generally, in my experience at least, these are more well-rounded and adjusted people who have lived life and/or have an ambitious streak.

    I’d like to go back to school for an advanced degree (maybe law and economics), but I can’t justify the price. More out of curiosity of the subjects than wanting a career change. I don’t think the U.S. can afford free education, but it would be cool if people could study their interests. Maybe once the robots take over and we all have leisure/labor has no value.

    I’ve written books without any training in writing, and I’ve had success with music with zero formal training, too. So I’m a big believer in using instincts, studying past masters, and then supplementing that with things like the library or YT. There’s no reason you can’t learn anything these days, and it’s only getting better. Some of this will depend on natural ability and not everyone will have aptitude for every field or even fields they desire, but everyone can be a better version of themselves using those resources.

    • I agree with this wholeheartedly. I like to tinker around building funiture and stuff. Nothing was ever that great but I hit up the old YouTube and started watch masters build things. Now, I make stuff and sell it for a large profit. I take my time and may only make 3-4 things a year but I enjoy it and the fact I can make money is just an added bonus ( I used to just do it for family). My last table I made sold for $800 and I had about$75 into it. Before that I took I request for a bathroom vanity, mirror surround and medicine cabinet. I put $250 into the whole set and got paid $1000. If I hadn’t studied master woodworking I would never be able to be turning these kind of profits. I am lucky though I get all my wood free, mostly in the form of pallets & crates from work.

        • Thanks, it’s been really surprising to me what people will pay for real wood, custom furniture. One of the biggest takeaways from the masters I got was embrace & highlight the imperfections in the reclaimed wood. People just love that stuff!

          • Wood is fascinating. I built my first guitar last past year using YT and self teaching the wood stuff. I think I asked some questions here on how to dye it, actually.

          • Angry did you build a bolt on style body or a set neck?

            I bought a CNC plasma table for my shop and it came with all the CNC router stuff. I’ve thought about looking for guitar body files.

          • It’s my #1 playing live…sounds amazing. I used a very thin hand mixed shellac (i.e. flakes mixed with everclear) as a finish instead of heavier poly or nitro on standard guitars. Most of the sound from electric guitars is the pickup itself, to be honest, though.

            There’s a luthier class nearby that I’m thinking of taking to learn how to build acoustics. Those are harder.

          • Making any kind of hollow body looks like a major pain in the ass.

            Pickups do shape the sound more than anything else, but they will sound different in a different size/wood type body. It seems like the higher output a pickup is the more it just has it’s own voice no matter what you put it in (looking at you EMG 81).

            Pickguard mounted pickups are something new to me also, having never been a Fender guy. That adds an element of “disconnect” from the body, at least compared to something like a dogear P90 screwed directly in to a flat top mahogany Gibson.

          • Oh yes Shellac! That’s my favorite finish to use, it’s so much more forgiving than any polyurethane. I bet it makes you feel pretty good playing it knowing that you made it. I feel great visiting my friend I did the bathroom set for, gives me a sense of pride.

          • It’s my favorite finish, too. Very easy to repair if you ding it. And it feels SO good strumming (I almost did a french polish type thing…very thing coats and did the cloth/circular movements). Feels so great under my arm that shellac.

    • I enjoy learning for the hell of it also. I’ve had careers in education, big-box retailing and healthcare management. It helped that I had a “college degree”, but I’m glad I didn’t spend a lot of money on it.

      • Enjoying learning is key to creating options, many people don’t really care to learn, but like the predictability of having the same problem over and over.

  14. Final thoughts from Surprise.
    Positives: Barring injury we have a 3-4 year starter at CF.
    Outfield D should be excellent with fast players at all three spots. McMahan looks way more comfortable this year in the outfield and made a couple of outstanding plays because of his speed.
    Dukart looked pretty good at the plate and in the field.
    Frosh pitchers looked pretty good, so there is some talent to work with.
    Negatives: We don’t have a great player that can carry a team. PC’s teams always seemed to have a couple of great players surrounded by a bunch of solid role players.
    Young Casey was really struggling at the plate. Whole team took a lot of called third strikes.
    Mitch looks to have ignored the small ball approach that has served Beaver baseball so well. Hopefully he gets his pro BB approach out of his system, because we don’t have the horses to play bash ball.

    Talked to several players parents and the kids really like the new coaches. Go Beavs!

  15. Pitt is handed down punishment from the NCAA for violations their MBB and Football teams made between 2015 and 2017.
    Despite going 0-18, Kevin Stallings was cheating at the same time. Cheating doesn’t always pay off.

    The good news for Beaver fans…..we hired the AD who was representing Pitt during a good portion of this period!
    Scott Barnes is not a popular man at Pitt……or OSU.

    https://twitter.com/alex_kirshner/status/1230544261692739586?s=19

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    REEEEEEEEEE!!! IF WE SUCK AT BASEBALL AND WOMENS BASKETBALL WE WILL NO LONGER HAVE A UNIVERSITY CALL YOUR LOCAL CONGRESSMAN RIGHT NOW

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    Tres gets ejected. Next year will be terrible if this current team is this bad. Need a new coach. Take a chance on a young up and comer. Who cares if he leaves in 3-5 years after a little success. I’d rather have a coach who does more with less talent than Tinkle.

      • They looked like Tinkle is coaching them lol… it pisses me off because what he did the first two years with way less talent was amazing… what changed? I am sure the OSU leadership will grant him another extension…. pretty sad state for MBB

        • Captain Obvious here, but next year and those that follow are going to be ugly. Tinkle doesn’t have any 4-star talent to carry the team to mediocrity. Still not sure why everyone was so excited when Tres came back. Tinkle has proven that he can’t get his teams to the NCAA tourney and we might as well get on with the losing that’s sure to come when Tres leaves.

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            Cj, exactly! Tinkle in his first two years coached stifling defense… There were some rule changes, one that comes to mind is shot clock… maybe someone can elaborate on other changes that hurt slow paced play… They would play the slowest paced game you have ever seen but it was effective at the time even with minimal offense… I remember him saying that he wanted to play a high paced game and he only played the slow pace because of the talent… But arguably they are less athletic now and would be better off playing the pace like year one and two… This year they have average to bad defense and bad to average offense… Not a winning formula… As far as the Tourney, Tinkle made it with shit talent other than GP II and the coaches sons as freshman.. it was only year two so clearly it could be done, he just went away from it or Craig Robinson actually could coach players up lol

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            I’ve said it before, but Big Tinks two best seasons were with a CR recruit. That should be a tell to Barnes that this is not the guy to lead the program, but nothing is going to change anytime soon.

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            It indicates the opposite… it indicates that Tinkle is the superior coach, because he used the same talent and had more success… It shows that Wayne Tinkle and his staff aren’t great evaluators of talent, either that or they didn’t focus on players that fit their system because they didn’t want to let their kids down… Both Thompson brothers playing the point makes zero sense… to go from a player like GP II (who shouldn’t have been playing PG either) to the Thompson bros who are average college players, that’s a huge drop… not to mention GP II was next level on defense

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    Glad the 5 year plan to get Tres that NBA contract is finally evaporating. Tinkle has chased off many players in order to keep playing Tres to stuffa stat book but not winning.
    Now get your passport updated and go coach him in Spain already.
    Ironic Tres ends up the alltime scorer as the featured scorer on mediocre teams, sad for OSU record books and all the true greats of OSU basketball history. Tres doesn’t crack top 20 alltime does he?

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      I disagree, Tres is a good college player in my mind… he would start on most teams throughout the country… that being said he was the only player OSU could rely on… on top of that, coach Tinkle is so obsessed with getting the ball in his sons hand, it stagnates the offense badly, and it’s very predictable… his son would likely would have better stats if he had better players around him and the coach actually let them have the ball… The Thompson brothers were the square blocks that didn’t fit

      • I do not think Tres is a good college basketball player. He’s not a good shooter, slow feet, doesn’t see the floor, holds the ball, doesn’t make his teammates better and is prone to turn overs at the worst times. Getting his second T last night was beyond dumb. Big tinks T during a timeout basically ended the game. He should have been preparing the team for a last push to cut the lead to single digits and get back in the game. With 12 minutes to play down 16, the game wasn’t over. After the T it was. Watching the access game against Colorado provided a glimpse into how bad a coach big tinks is… it’s worse than I could have ever imagined. His half time “pep talk” is incredibly bad and did nothing to prepare the team to make adjustments and win.

          • I think it was when Tinks was babbling about how Lucas should not drive to the basket because he’s a freshman. That’s a nice boost of confidence. Did he tell his son not to do that when he was a frosh? I’m glad Fox Sports did the no commercials, mic-ed up coaches, it opened my eyes to how bad of a coach Tinkle is compared to someone like Boyle.

          • yeah… it was embarrassing. my son is currently playing at the HS level and was in disbelief. he’s only a freshman and might have a chance to play college ball some day. he’s a huge beav fan but said he would never play for big tinks based on what he saw against colorado. I don’t think my son will actually get a chance to play at the pac 12 level but I think his perspective is an example of how other recruits watching that telecast would perceive big tinks. who would ever want to play for that blow hard. no purpose in his message at all.

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    Apathy, disinterest about the men’s basketball team? I don’t think so. The 10-12 comments above prove that the men’s basketball team gets much more attention than does the men’s tennis and swim teams. So there

  20. Two other things from Surprise:
    Verberg has been throwing full out and is supposed to get a couple of innings in the San Diego weekend.
    Jake M has been dealing with an unspecified injury.

  21. Well this thread was an enjoyable read. Thanks for sharing your stories. Interesting to read the different paths and outlooks on education/prices.

    New thread up for the next two baseball series.

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