Going on 4th Down and the Problem with Stats
This is from the prior thread:
When I say the limitations of statistical sheets, I’m talking about the fact there’s a big difference between Ohio State or Michigan going for 4th down conversions compared with Oregon State. Smith just sees the 4th down conversion rate and thinks it doesn’t depend on all those variables that go into being Ohio State or Michigan, including a usually much inferior opponent with undersized defenders, etc. Think how much Oregon under Chip skewed that conversation rate, for example. If he wants a more accurate representation of the actual rate, he should look at the bottom 50% schools and their rate of success going for 4th downs.
Of course there are other factors that won’t wind up on a stat sheet, like the refs for that game, how gassed the opponent is, weather conditions, team confidence levels, etc. This is a big reason I have been critical of Smith’s decisions. Much more important than a flawed stat sheet is a head coach who is observant and has feel for the game. If a coach is observant and has feel, he’s going to know what to do. This is why someone like Bill Snyder always seemed to make the right call, despite not using a sheet. In a way the sheet is a cop out to make the difficult decision for the coach, and in that sense they might be hiding behind it. It’s hard to criticize a coach when he can say, “I just followed the maths!”, but it also makes you wonder why you’re paying him, because if not for getting the difficult decisions correct, then what?
Someone correct me if I’m wrong and the stat sheet is factoring all of these variables in. I think the NFL has more of these variables baked in with the more advanced Next Gen stats, but to my knowledge the NCAA isn’t that advanced.