First of all, I predicted a loss because I’ve been wrong the past few weeks, noticed the streak,  and prayed that streak would continue. Luckily, it did. In short, I’m predicting loses the rest of the season.

The good: some diversity in the play calling. Sweeps, vertical passing, etc. The offensive line blocked better. I still see Grant Johnson and Mike Remmers missing blocks left and right, but at least none of them killed us in this game.  On defense, I liked what I saw–in limited time, granted–from Taylor Henry. Good edge rush, good speed, got the lone sack of the game. Also, Hardin looks excellent in coverage. Not just the interception but all around coverage. Another player who stood out at times was Lagrone. There were plays where he was completely over-matched, but at other times he was very disruptive.  I think a DL of Henry, Terry, Paea and DT2 (whoever it may be, they’re all equally ineffective) would be the best combination moving forward. A CB lineup of Clark and Hardin with Dockery as a nickle back would be ideal as well. Collins was definitely better than #28 in coverage tonight, but like most of you saw, he isn’t a great player at this point. Lance Mitchell again showed that he is the best player on this defense.

The Bad: Yes, more diverse play calling, but the sweeps and deep balls still went to the Rodgers brothers. There were times where it was clear as a limpid pond that the ball was going to be a handoff to Quiz, a bubble screen to James, or a fly sweep. I sat here, drinking wine out of the bottle, dribbling down my shirt-less chest, saying to myself, “here comes play xyz”…sure enough…even the Canfield int was predictable. The Beavs lose focus for a quarter each game. Tonight it was the 3rd quarter. Usually they come out strong, and it’s the 2nd and 3rd quarters where they suddenly get worse ADD than a young Japanese boy playing Super Famicon. But, they fought through it. A minor peeve of mine was hanging off twice to Quiz before halftime. The guy does not need to take the brunt of those meaningless caries–it’s why we have backups. Riley’s choice to go for the 53 yard FG was also terrible coaching. Otherwise, solid if not glamorous game.

On deck: Stanford.

First series: More of the same old…few good plays, then the Quiz run for a loss and a sack and a deep ball out of desperation. Followed by another Hekker shank. Can we recruit special teams players? Mike, they do make up 1/3 of the game.

Second series: Again, nice play calling, good job of taking advantage of the ASU muff and getting 7 instead of settling for 3. Glad to see the offensive line able to gel for 3 plays and allow us the relatively easy score (i.e. given great field position). Also, was that a Beaver in the backfield on ASU’s 3rd down pass???!  ASU has major line problems…that early pressure is a good sign.

Series three: Nice play call on the pitch to Quiz. Why not do that more often and put him in space? He’s a small guy with great cutting ability…would do better on those sweeps than in-between the tackles. Less abuse with the ability to run out of bounds if needed. Hey, bottom line is that this is better play calling. Better late than never…? Beavs usually start well, so it’s maintain focus time…

Fourth Series: more predictability…fly sweep to James, screen pass to Quiz. Yawn.  If the coaches want to gain yards on these plays they probably shouldn’t call them 80% of the time. I see these plays in my dreams.  Surely they are no surprise to the defense–last year we were gaining chunks on those plays…this year 5 yards max. Nice quick release and pass from Canfield to Adeniji. Great pass from Canny to James…nice concentration on the catch.  Seems the Beavs are getting the best results from plays they rarely call. Sign to Landsdorf and Riley: MIX IT UP.

5. Maybe Harden hasn’t been in the system long enough to know he shouldn’t turn his head and make a play on the ball? Nice Int. Doesn’t amount to much. Hekker redeems himself. Beavs playing well in all facets so far, but we all remember this same scenario in 2007.

6. Love that 42 yarder to Adeniji. Pretty ball. Overall impression is that the offensive line is playing better than last week. It’s allowing those routes to develop. Lagrone is our best DE right now, so he should start or at least see the field more. He had the safety against Cincy and now a few big plays in this game.  Maintain focus, Beavs. That is the key right now. Bad call by Riley going for a FG before the half. Even if that kick was good the decision is stupid. The announcers had the right analysis–ASU can’t move the ball, don’t give them decent field position. What a bone-head move. I’d rather see them go for the conversion than kick that FG. The odds are better of converting than Kahut converting from that distance.  Didn’t come back to burn us, but man, Mike, if you’re going to be aggressive go for the higher percentage play. Also, why hand the ball off to Quiz and have him pounded 2 times before the half on a meaningless drive? Isn’t  that why we have a backup?

7. Anyone else sensing the typical lack of focus after half time?  Sometimes it’s the 2nd quarter, sometimes the 3rd, but it’s very typical of OSU to be flat for at least 1/4 of the game, in which time they either (a) let the other team back in the game, like tonight, or (b) lose the game. As I type this, TD Arizona State. Here we go. My guess: a few predictable runs to Quiz on our next drive, maybe a Canfield INT.

8. “Maybe a Canfield INT” !!! What did I tell you?  God this team is predictable. Oh, and the play before it, the ever predictable “bubble screen” to James for a 5 yard loss–it’s no wonder…if a blogger can predict plays surely a college defensive coordinator can. This game is a loss.

9. Cool, TD Adeniji–this should ice the game. I love when my Beav loss predictions are wrong.

10. Overall, a lot of things wrong with this game…post game analysis to follow.

So the safety, #28, is finally going to ride the bench this weekend. Finally! Cam Collins has looked shaky in his limited playing time, but change was long overdue and maybe a move like this jumpstarts the defense. For all the talk of Riley finding hidden talent and developing it, he’s painfully loyal to players who are not talented, and that loyalty nullifies many of his positive traits.  If we had benched #28 in the UNLV game when it was clear he was the weak link in the secondary, we maybe win vs Cincy (he did give up 14 points) or Arizona (he gave up 7 more). Last year we went through this same process when Riley got hooked on Keith Pankey, the player who took an angle on Toby Gerhart that not even his mother could love and 60 yards later the Beavers miss the Rose Bowl by 1 loss. Dwight Roberson was the obvious play to everyone but Riley. When Roberson began seeing the field more, the Beavers went on a tear. For whatever reason, Riley and Banker believed that Pankey was better in pass coverage than Roberson. Clearly this, too, is wrong. What do they feel #28 does well? He’s terrible in coverage and his tackling in run support is average at best.

So does this change parlay into a win in Tempe? I don’t think so. The thing is, the mental make up of the team is not right. I’m did not sense urgency in last weekend’s post-game quotes, nor did I sense any killer instinct in this week’s pre-game quotes. Paraphrasing, there has been a lot of “we’re not panicking”, “last year we started 2-3 and things were fine” etc. What is most disconcerting is that some of these sentiments were coming from the senior leadership. I understand what they’re trying to do, but if underclassman see a senior saying not to panic because we start 2-3 every year, then it almost makes the loses seem acceptable, common place, etc, and this curbs a younger guys natural passion. Wake up Beavers. It’s time to panic.

Wouldn’t it be nice to see some fire and passion from this team?

What do I know about Arizona State? Nada. Not one of their games has been broadcast here in Santa Barbara. Haven’t seen a single play, not even on Sportscenter. Everything I know about the Sun Devils is from hearsay. With that being said…

1. They played Georgia close on the road.

2. They beat up on two bad football teams.

3. In spring ball they were talking about using a lot of 5wr sets–also known as #28 will get torched for a minimum of two scores.

4. They have the highest ranked defense in the PAC-10, but again, that data is likely skewed due to the weak competition.

5. Supposedly their QB isn’t very good, but the Beavers make every QB look All-American.

Given all of the above, and considering the game is at Tempe, we should lose. But, I tell you what–we need to win a game that we’re expected to lose in order to make up for last weeks debacle. That’s the only way to get back in this. Given the Beavers haven’t won a game at Tempe in 40 years, this is definitely a game they’re expected to lose. The good news for the Beavers is that my last two predictions have been wrong. And this week I’m predicting a loss. So, if they lose, Angry is a genius; if they win, Angry is an ecstatic idiot. It’s like a rook/queen fork in chess–I simply can’t lose.

31-17 Sun Devils