Edit: my answers are now up on his site: link

Here you go guys. Hank from GoMightyCard. Check for my answers to this questions on his site. They’re not up yet, but check back in a bit. He apologized for the slow response. IMO it doesn’t do much good to get these out on a Friday with only one day of discussion. Next year we’ll have to work on it sooner. Anyway, here are the answers to questions you guys asked.

Why such a drop off with their QB from last year to this year?

This is the question that everyone’s asking, but I don’t think there’s any one answer, just lots of different factors. First and foremost, the top three receivers from last year are gone. That would normally call for some adjustments, but the Stanford passing offense has been predicated on precision on both ends. Last year it never seemed like the receivers were wide open, but they were always exactly where they were expected to be, and Costello always put the ball exactly where they expected it. Costello relied not just on the superior strength and ability of J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, for example, but on the chemistry the two of them shared. Costello and his receivers were always on the same page, and the result was one of the best years a Stanford quarterback has ever had. So there was always going to be an adjustment period as those receivers were replaced, but Costello wasn’t healthy during the spring or much of the summer, so wasn’t able to work with his new targets to build that confidence and chemistry that’s so necessary in this offense, and that shows. And then there have been more injuries. Costello was injured on the last play of the first half in week one and then missed game two. He seemed to be healthy for week three, but on the first series last week his passing hand came down on a defender’s helmet, and it clearly bothered him the rest of the way. He didn’t throw much in practice this week, and we haven’t even heard the official word from David Shaw about his playing status on Saturday. An announcement is expected later today.

Who is the backup QB, and will he get into this game if Costello struggles?

The backup quarterback is Davis Mills. He was the top rated pro-style quarterback in the recruiting class of 2017, and several scouts even compared him to Andrew Luck, but injuries have curtailed his development. There was a knee injury midway through his senior season of high school, another injury soon after arriving at Stanford, and yet another one last year. He’s finally healthy, and at media day Costello said he was looking better than he has in three years. He played well enough in his relief stint during week one, but struggled along with the rest of the offense against USC in week two. He showed the things you usually see from backup quarterbacks — some bad reads, a lack of touch when touch was required, and an incomplete grasp of the playbook. I’ll definitely be surprised if Costello doesn’t get the start, but given all the intrigue, I suppose it won’t be a surprise if Mills plays at least a little bit.

Do fans still think Shaw is there for life?

The short answer to the question the way you pose it is yes. Nothing short of a scandal would cause the administration to fire David Shaw, and the only reason Shaw would choose to leave would be for the NFL, something that isn’t talked about as much anymore. So even though the Cardinal fortunes have slipped recently, Shaw sits comfortably in a rocking chair, not a hot seat. All of that being said, there is plenty of grumbling in the fan base. Personally, I’m a huge Shaw supporter, and there’s no one in America that I’d rather have as coach of my team, but people get spoiled quickly. All of that success we enjoyed just a few years ago, going to three Rose Bowls in four years, makes eight-win seasons feel like failures. As a result, there is lots of frustration with the offense, with recruiting, and with the current lack of identity. The most belligerent voices even blame the coaching staff for the recent string of injuries that have decimated the offensive line. So in a nutshell, lots of fans are dissatisfied, but Shaw isn’t going anywhere. It will be interesting, however, to see if there’s turnover on his staff during this off season.

Anything about the loss to Oregon which makes you believe the chemistry is improving between Costello and his receivers? Do you expect improvements to the passing game this week?

Unfortunately, no. Last week’s game offered almost no optimism for the Stanford offense. I think the offensive line played better at times, and the running game didn’t look quite as anemic as it had earlier in the season, but overall it was one of the worst offensive performances in recent memory. As outlined above, there doesn’t seem to have been much work between Costello and his receivers during practice this week, so I worry that things might look the same this Saturday as last.

You’ve written of Shaw, “I don’t think I’ve ever seen him so frustrated and angry, and I think that’s a good thing.” Do you expect changes to the coaching approach or the preparations this week? Changes to both?

I’m certain that his attitude on Saturday night served as some type of catalyst for the coaches and players as they worked this week. Even on Tuesday during his weekly presser he was still on edge and clearly still angry about the Oregon game. I don’t naive enough to think that that means they’ll all just flick a switch and return to being a dominant team, but I think it guarantees the team won’t be looking past this game. When a team is 1-3 and has struggled as much as this group, it can’t look past anyone. This has become the most important game of the season. Not only do they need to fix what’s going on, there is the looming reality that this team could miss out on a bowl bid for the first time in a decade. At this point they need every win they can get.

Will Shaw or Pritchard call the O? Or a combo? What difference will it make?

This is another source of contention among fans. Tavita Pritchard is the offensive coordinator, but Shaw is the primary play caller. Shaw doesn’t like to delineate their relationship in clear terms, but he has always made it clear that Shaw’s the one calling the plays in the red zone. The rest of the time, the feeling — and again, this has never been completely confirmed — is that Pritchard suggests plays and sometimes Shaw listens. This summer when I asked Shaw about play-calling logistics, his answer seemed to support that. It seems like during the game he gets lots of input from Pritchard, and even some of the other coaches, about what looks to be working, and then he calls the plays based on all that. He also scripts plays for the opening drives of each half, and I’d expect those scripts are influenced by Pritchard as well. Naturally, all of this leads to criticism from fans, especially now as the offense has been struggling. The general feeling, I think, is that people would prefer if Shaw hired a more experienced offensive coordinator and gave him full play-calling responsibility. I could see him hiring someone new, but it’s hard for me to imagine him giving up the offense entirely.

Has recruiting fallen off or is this just a down year in a long term uptick cycle?

This is another mystery. If you look at the offense, there are still lotsof four-star out there. Lots of them. But two years ago they weren’t able to sign their usual complement of offensive linemen, so the recent spate of injuries has left that group incredibly thin. Three different true freshmen have started on the offensive line, and the two players who were supposed to anchor what should’ve been the best line in the country — Walker Little and Foster Sarell, arguably the two top overall recruits in 2017 — have battled injuries. Little, a consensus pre-season All-America, suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first game, and Sarell has been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries. Health will always be the most important variable in a football team’s success, and when Stanford was at its best the team was healthier than it had a right to be. The last three seasons have made up for that, with the Cardinal absorbing more than its share of injuries. That combined with the earlier dip in recruiting has produced what we’re looking at now.

How do they and other outsiders view Luton?

I have to admit that I don’t have any thoughts on Luton.

Your prediction?

If there was any optimism after last week’s game it came from the defense. They were able to hold an explosive Oregon team to just 21 points, and there were long stretches of the game when the Ducks couldn’t move the ball. After three straight games against the high-paced offenses of UCF, USC, and Oregon, it seemed like the defense finally came together. There were some mental breakdowns that allowed two of those touchdowns, but in general they looked much better, especially in the front seven. It’s hard for me to believe that I’m saying this, but at this point it looks like the Cardinal’s going to have to rely on the defense to win games. With that in mind, I’m looking for a low-scoring game and a 20-13 Stanford win.

Fall is here, ring the bell…

On cue, when I woke this morning it was 49 degrees out. The times they are a changin’? Can this change in seasons be a metaphor for the Beav’s season?

Well, if that’s going to happen, this is the game. Caught about ten minutes of the Oregon – Stanford game, and my takeaway is that Stanford looks like a light edition of their former selves. You still see the run first offense, big lineman, short passing game to move the chains, slow players, smart players, etc. But they look like a dumbed down version. Some of that could be the Duck’s speed making Stanford look overly slow. Their quarterback play looked especially atrocious, though. Costello had 29TDs and 3,500 yards last year, so he’s not awful, but his numbers are and he looked bad on Saturday.

A few other factors:

• Weather – Rain predicted for Saturday.
• Trap game – After the Beavs, Stanford has #17 Washington.
• Injuries – The Beavs should be healed up, while Stanford just took a beating from Oregon.
• Beavs found some consistency and confidence vs Cal Poly.
• Students should be in full force, and the game overall should be fairly loud given it’s the Pac opener.

Maybe this is why Vegas has the line as only -3 for Stanford?

With all the above I see a fairly close game. I think a TD either way. I’m going pick ’em, and gun to my head Beavs get their 2nd win.

30-28, Oregon State

Link to the article.

While this comes off as “OSU is showing appreciation for giving out free tickets”, the truth of the matter is they’re embarrassed by the lack of (a) ticket tales, which are down significantly compared to last year and (b) the empty stadium. We’re to the point of the year that you can’t blame it on the student section.

So, no, OSU isn’t being nice. They’re being desperate.

It’s a good thing, don’t get me wrong. Having people in the stands ups our odds of a win. But I don’t like how the article is spinning OSU to be saints here; the reality is they’re trying to make up for past sins. The bad HC hires, the bad AD hires, poor merchandise deals, etc. Nothing four free tickets shouldn’t fix, eh?

Some big picture takeaways:

• Those of us who want to see Gebbia start will have to wait. Luton had a good game (even though it was against a glorified HS team), and it probably buys him two bad games.
• We’re four deep at RB. I thought we were only 3 deep, but Tyler and Baylor both look like serviceable players. Baylor is a guy I didn’t have much confidence in, but he was nifty. Earned a few carries vs better teams.
• The defense looked improved. I know it was essentially a HS team, but still, the discipline and staying home on the option stood out. Getting a few turnovers and sacks was good to see. Tisebar hot seat: 3.5/10, down from a 4.5 last week.
• Confidence. This might the biggest one. Winning is contagious, and seeing your work pay off makes you work harder.
• Flemings — promising as a 2nd option, but I’m not completely sold yet. I can see him getting creamed in conference play. On the flipside, Irish was disappointing. He gave up on the punt return, dropped some passes, and didn’t do much with his opportunity vs a bad team. The guy you want to see step up is Taylor. Flemings as a slot/WR3 makes more sense. Bradford’s return should solve this problem, too, and give a legit #2.
• Musgrave — he might eat into Togia’s time. Smith has seemed frustrated with Togia, saying he’d like to get him more balls but he “has to catch them”. Musgrave looked more like a natural pass catcher. Togia with 3 catches but didn’t look very natural doing it.
• Solid play calling. After a terrible game vs Hawaii, BL had a good game calling plays.
• Good time for a bye. Stanford should get a tough game from Oregon. With their newfound confidence and needed rest the Beavs should have a shot.

What stood out to you?

Go Beavs (anarchy if they lose this game).