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The Illusion of Improvement & a “Soft Landing”

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With the Euro about to implode, there's a lot of talk about whether the technocrats can engineer a "soft landing" that doesn't blow up the entire financial system.

Well, I think we'll see the same philosophy from the OSU athletic department.

  • Bob D signed Riley to a horrible lifetime contract. Now it's all about damage control: how many years of Riley's contract will OSU be forced to eat? The longer they can extend the charade the better.
  • Convincing donors to fork over money will be increasingly difficult given the football team's performance coupled with current economic conditions.
  • Therefore, he will have to engineer the "illusion of improvement" to keep donations flowing. E.g. If Riley wins 4 games next year, he can tell donors there was improvement, and their money is required for continued improvement.
  • Now that expectations are so low (i.e. 3 wins) it should be easy to execute this plan. If Riley can win just one more game per year they'll get the soft landing, and in 4 years the Beavs will be back to 7 wins and in a bowl game.

If the Beavs can somehow improve to 6 wins next year, then scrap all the above: things return to "normal" as the lower bar will have been met. However, the engineered soft landing implodes if Riley somehow only manages 3 wins (or fewer) next season. At that point it's chaos. Bob D would have to fire him. After all, Beaver fans love them some Emerald Bowls.

Bob D wants Riley as long as possible for one reason: he doesn't want to be paying two coaches. It'll be interesting to see how long the powers at be can keep up the illusion of improvement. Do they make it to 2019? I doubt it, but the average OSU fan is so gullible and meek that they might just pull it off.

Civil War (Game Thread)

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Keys to a Beav upset (ha ha):

  • Ball control offense
  • Converting every 3rd down
  • TDs over FGs
  • Attempt and convert 4th and shorts when in borderline punt scenarios
  • +3 TO margin
  • Slowing the Ducks on 1st and 2nd down/forcing long conversions (imperative to keep the D fresh)
  • Monster games from Wynn and Crichton
  • Good game plan from Banker (would like to see the Wide9 combined with 8 in the box)…force Thomas to win the game via the air.

That's how you get a monumental upset. Good luck doing all that, Beavs…if you do, you will win.

Go Beavs…?

Oregon State @ Towson

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Sorry dudes, forgot it was an early game today. No write up.

Go Beavs!

Link: http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/id/321156/

Realism vs Pessimism

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First off, happy Thanksgiving Beavlettes!

Okay, in the comment area I saw these negative comments (ironic, no?) aimed at this site and its commenters:

1. Man the naysayers come out when they smell blood in the water. It is this kind of pessimistic shit that led to 20+ losing seasons. Support the team during the season, leave your bitching for the offseason. These kids deserve better.

2. Concur, with fans like these, you don’t need enemies.

First off, our players are men, not kids. When men embark on a task and fail, they deserve constructive criticism. It's good for everyone. Empathy is a good trait, but only to a point (think Jim Harbaugh's character with cruelty comment). "Bleeding hearts" prolong problems.

Moving on, the thing is, I am not negative or a pessimist. I don't believe in being negative for the sake of it. Yes, I have a critical eye, but ultimately I'm a realist. If a team is good (e.g. The Ducks) I say so; if a team is bad (e.g. The Beavers) I say that, too. That is a realistic and balanced outlook. A truly negative person would say both the Ducks and Beavers suck. For a realist, every bad has an opposite good.

This doesn't stop with football. Here's another example: I exited the stock market in 2008 because it was clear housing was in a bubble. The optimists (and Herman Cain *hehe*) said it wasn't a bubble, that those people were just negative Nancy's who probably owned put options and thus wished for the end of the world. No, I was just a realist and understood the underlying fundamentals were unsound. Same with the market today. It may irrationally rally to Dow 13,000 on good news out of Europe, but true forward-looking value and underlying fundamentals put fair value at around 8500 and possibly much lower (if interest rates increase), so eventually that's where it's going. Therefore, I am out once again. Does that make me negative? A pessimist? Should I blindly throw money into stocks just to be optimistic, a good American, support the system?? Again, this "negative" outlook has a positive counterpoint: I am going to save myself money, and given that stocks are in a bear market, there is likely a bull market somewhere else (e.g. gold). Balance, see?

I found this paragraph, written by "Phil B", interesting. Sums it up nicely:

I'm often called a pessimist, yet I consider myself a realist. I think real pessimists are very negative and depressed most of the time, so I don't consider myself one. I have high hopes for myself, my family, my friends, and humanity.

However, this leads to the point that realism is much closer to pessimism than it is to optimism. And so what if it does? In my opinion, if realism causes negativity, then so be it. People must face the truth, no matter how awful or depressing it may be. Only when people are fully aware of the facts, can people accept reality. As I stated in a previous article about the advantages of negativity, I believe being realistic and thus more negative has advantages. Specifically, negativity highlights opportunities for people to grow and improve their surroundings. Furthermore, only when people are aware of all possibilities, can people accept these possible outcomes and be the most prepared for even the worse case scenario.

One more thought: if Oregon fans had blindly supported Mike Bellotti, the Ducks most likely wouldn't have made a National Title game; if Auburn fans had blindly supported Tommy Tuberville, they most likely wouldn't have won a National Title; and, if Oregon State fans blindly follow Mike Riley, they'll sow their ultimate destination, too.

Hopefully this clarifies my/our "negative" outlook to the Pollyannas. Now, time to go eat some fantastic turkey with my lady and enjoy this beautiful Central Coast weather.  :D

Civil War (Pre-Game)

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People (or a lone wolf) are calling for a Civil War thread.

I had to decide: do I write about the Civil War or trim my nose hairs, pick the lint out of my belly button, or take a pumice stone to my calloused toes? When presented with those alternatives, I decided to cave in and write about the Civil War.

This one is so easy to predict that I'll just bullet point it:

  • Ducks will score early.
  • Chip Kelly goes for two, Ducks up 8-0.
  • Beavs drive but stall inside the 30, settle for a FG attempt.
  • Romaine misses the FG.
  • Ducks score, Chip decides to kick the extra point. 15-0.
  • Beavs drive again, Riley thinks "We need to get on the board" and settled for a 45 yard FG attempt.
  • Romaine kicks a low line drive that hooks just inside the left upright. 15-3.
  • Ducks get a monster kick return and regain momentum. James runs for a 50 yard TD. Telecasters gloat "His speed [blah blah blah]…you have to wrap him up."
  • Chip goes for two to make it an even twenty. 23-3.
  • Mannion leads a good drive. Beavs score. 23-10.
  • With a minute and a half left, Ducks have the ball at their 20. Riley thinks they'll take knee and go into the half, but they drive down to the 20 yard line. Only thing that stops another score is the clock, now at 7 seconds. Ducks tack on a FG and regain momentum going into the locker room. 26-10
  • Beavs get the kickoff, return it to the 30.
  • Mannion throws an interception.
  • Ducks score. 33-10
  • Beavs defense is tired, bordering on wiped out.
  • After a 3 and out by the offense, they have to take the field again.
  • Ducks score. 40-10
  • Mannion drives the team into FG range. Riley rightfully passes on the FG attempt, goes for it on a 4th and 3. Autzen goes crazy, Remmers false starts. It's now 4th and 8. Mannion completes a 7 yard pass. Ducks ball, turnover on downs.
  • Black Mamba gets in on the action, ripping off an 80 yard run. 47-10 Ducks.
  • 4th quarter. Beavs are happy the game's almost over. Defense is sucking wind.
  • Riley spotted on the sideline laughing it up with Banker. Lip readers think they see a "You'll get 'em next year, Mark"…status-quo advocates rejoice.
  • Ducks show some mercy. D. Thomas milks the play clock after each 12 yard run. 4th quarter ends with a whimper and one more score. 54-10, Ducks.