Jack

Vanderbilt started the year ranked in the top ten, but they never looked right in their first three games, losing to Cleveland State in a non-contest at home last Sunday. But they look like they’re turning their season around with a little time together on the floor.

Vandy runs a version of the backdoor offense which has the high post setting a lot of topside screens to free their scoring guards, junior John Jenkins (6’4″) and senior Brad Tinsley (6’3″). Jenkins was the scoring leader in the SEC last year with 19.4 ppg, and he hasn’t slowed down this year, averaging 23 ppg thus far.

Vandy is without defensive and board specialist Festus Ezeli, so they will present three active forwards in their front court. Senior Steve Tchiengang (6’9″) mans the middle with good length and solid play. He can step outside to sink the trey, but he is relied upon to do the yeoman’s work inside without Ezeli present. Senior Lance Goulbourne (6’8″) takes the PF minutes with great lateral quickness and a nose for boards. He can score when asked to do so, but he tallies his points by taking high percentage shots run through the offense and making his way to the line for the easy 15-footers. Senior Jeffery Taylor (6’7″) is the athletic forward relied upon by this Vandy team to produce their front court points.

I’ve read more than one preview of this game which suggests that Taylor will be tasked with defending Jared in tonight’s game. But I don’t see this as a possibility given Taylor’s bulk. He’s a tough, smart and athletic wing, but he doesn’t have the skills necessary to tag along with a guard as fast as Jared. I would say the match-up tonight will be Jared on Jenkins, yet another defensive challenge for him. If he can treat Jenkins like he did Mike Moore and J’Covan Brown, then he could be on his way to another big night.

While Vandy starts a lot of experience, they lack said experience on their bench. The frosh duo of Kedren Johnson (6’4″) and Dai-Jon Parker (6’3″) join soph Kyle Fuller (6’1″) in spelling Tinsley and Jenkins and pushing coach Kevin Stallings’ smaller sets at times. There’s more skill in these three than their production thus far would suggest. We can only hope none of them finds their game tonight, because they throw up a bunch of perimeter shots.

Soph F Rod Odom (6’9″) is the only real size coming off the bench, though frosh C Josh Henderson (6’11″) will likely be called upon to counter the Beavs size and depth. Odom is another wing with varying inside/outside skills. But he also has yet to find his comfort zone, relying on his athleticism instead of his head to get shots up.

With all the experience on Vandy’s starting line-up, they tend to control the pace of the game for their own needs. But they are unusually susceptible to turning the ball over this year, especially when hit with an aggressive defense. The frosh and sophs off the bench are actually more security-minded than the starters, but that may just be a function of the time spent on the floor. They also sorely lack an interior defensive presence without Ezeli. One can only assume they will be a different team when he returns.

They have the speed in the backcourt to defend in transition, but I don’t know if they have enough to do it all game long. And the Beavs will be looking to get it out often on this team. The faster Coach Rob forces Stallings to go to his bench, the more likely it is that OSU makes Vandy think itself out of this game.

Despite a late game run which made the score look a little prettier, Vandy did give up when faced with a pressure D in the form of Cleveland State. But, hearing what Stallings was shouting on the sideline, I don’t think they’re about to do the same for the rest of the season. The one thing their experience does do is make runs to end games. And if they are close or leading toward the end, then the Beavs need to work a little extra crunch time magic to seal the win.

This game will be about pace. The Beavs are scoring a bunch of points without production from some of their likely suspects. Vandy is doing the same without bench production. If anyone in the shadows steps up, they can be the difference on the scoring end. The Beavs size, speed, defense and pace all portend bad things for Vandy, but I wouldn’t discount their experience and skill just yet. Vandy has had their let-down game in the non-con schedule. The Beavs haven’t allowed themselves to have one yet. This could be an interesting battle of will versus skill… in either direction.

I honestly don’t know which will win out in this one. There’s a reason Vandy is ranked in the top 20. If the Beavs want to go there themselves, they need to win games like this. Will that pressure make our boys finally lose focus?

I don’t think so.

Beavs 78 – Dores 68

Angry

The Beavs' opponents have been getting progressively stronger. That has allowed their confidence to build slowly as they pass each gradual test. I thought they could play with Texas but not beat them. I've been forced to reassess my (negative) bias, which had carried over from last season. The team we've seen the first four game is the team we expected last year. We were a year early and too anxious. In other words, typical fans.

Now the question is do we buy in and accept the Beavers are this good?

Well, there are troubling aspects. A player like Devon Collier is excellent at creating second chances and getting to the line, but empirical evidence says he misses half those shots. Moreland has the same problem. So, the bigs who can play inside and draw the fouls are leaving double-digit points on the floor. Can they continue to do that and win games? When the opponent is bad or average, yes, but the Beavs (especially the aforementioned bigs) need to shoot 70%+ from the line to win tonight.

The most encouraging aspect thus far has been team chemistry. Guys know their roles and genuinely like one another. They're in it together. The big thing is to not let the success get to their collective heads, and to remain humble and unified.

Jack mentioned Vandy has some legit bigs…that makes me nervous. Beavs haven't gone up against any good centers thus far. The Beavs have an undersized front court. I see Collier and Moreland getting into foul trouble unless they can force the tempo and play a hectic game.

I'm a believer in this team, but I'm not yet a believer they're a top 20 team. No pick tonight because I can't gauge this team yet, but you can probably read between the lines and concluded I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if they win this game and ascend into the top 25. This is the most excited I've been about a hoops game since I began following the team. Beavs have an opportunity to enter the prime time.

Jack

This game will be a fun one if both teams hold true to their early formulas for success. Both teams like to harass the opposition on defense, and both teams will run if given the opportunity. Texas comes into the game with the confidence of sustained success within the program over several years, and the Beavs seem to have finally found a new confidence of their own. Up and down the line-ups, it’s hard to find any real mismatches on either side, so it will be a matter of who makes their shots to determine the winner.

Texas implements a variation of Ralph Miller’s 1-4 offense. They will run at the Beavs with a three guard set for most of the game unless the Beavs size becomes a real factor. Junior G J’Covan Brown (6’1″) is the key to their offense, but they rely heavily on the frosh G quartet of Myck Kabongo (6’1″), Julien Lewis (6’3″), Sheldon McClellan (6’4″) and Sterling Gibbs (6’1″), with the first two starting. All five can score at times, but Brown is the only one who can sustain any real scoring pace. The frosh do have ball security issues as well, but Kabongo is so quick in the open court that he can find space at will and make good decisions in traffic. Brown and Kabongo make a living from the line, so moving the feet on defense will be keys against both.

Their frontcourt is smallish compared to the Beavs. They start senior Alex Wangmene (6’7″) at post and frosh Jonathan Holmes (6’7″) at the power swing. And they spell them with frosh Jaylen Bond (6’7″) and Canby native, senior Clint Chapman (6’10″). Of these four, Holmes is the player which we should be most concerned. He is very active on the boards and also works his way to the line for some free tosses. Bond is similar in style, but he seems to be lost some of the time. If he decides to participate every moment he’s on the floor, he could be just as effective as Holmes. Regardless, the Beavs need to put bodies on the Texas bigs and control the glass from start to finish.

Texas is an outside-in team who will run a lot of screens and cuts to the hoop for easy cripples. Their defense is active, but they have a tendency to slap more than shuffle. And it’s not because of youth. Kabongo is the most polished defender due to his quickness, while Brown could be susceptible to foul trouble early if he’s not immediately and continuously focused. So we will see them fall back into a 2-3 zone for probably half the game. In fact, I would think the Beavs size advantage would force them into the zone quite a bit more than head coach Rick Barnes would like.

The keys to this game will be for the Beavs to use their size to win the key first, then make their outside shots second. If Moreland and Brandt can be aggressive without getting too physical, they could aid Joe and Devon in dominating the glass. But it will take some great communication to keep an active Texas off the boards. Look also for the Beavs D to create TO’s in order to get out and run. Texas does counter their size disadvantage with good speed, so there will be less uncontested breaks than we’ve seen previously. Finishing with contact may be necessary more than once in this game.

Because of Texas’ speed, I don’t want to say that the Beavs have an advantage in the transition game. But our boys have shown thus far that they can hustle down the floor in a hurry. I think this game may be a lot faster than even we want to see. Depth and patience will be important.

In the end, it will all come down to perimeter shooting. It’s the greatest equalizer when faced with a size disadvantage, and Texas has it in spades. If the Beavs can shoot treys with consistency this might be a long night for Texas.

So I have to be conditional in my pick for this game.

If the Beavs come out with the same confidence and fire they’ve played with thus far AND they make their perimeter shots, then they will win something like 95-87.

If we have the same game from the floor we saw against Hofstra, then Texas will run it out as far as they can before the Beave make it an uncomfortable finish for them. Texas will win with about the same score the other way.

Angry

I'll leave the analysis to Jack. 

Things I haven't liked thus far:

• Team doesn't seem to understand or value each possession
• Shaky defense
• Missed free throws
• Too many unforced turnovers
• Forcing threes rather than taking them within the flow of the game

Everything else has been solid.

Teams with size will give the Beavs trouble, but Texas has only average bigs. I want to go with the Longhorns since they're traditionally a good squad, but the Beavs are upstarts with growing confidence. The Beavs also have impressive depth. This is a really interesting match up. Gun to my head I'd say Texas, but definitely feel the Beavs can win this game. However, I'm stopping short of saying they should win. Beavs need to earn that respect on the court first.

Texas, 81-77

 

We're starting a new feature today where Jack Beav gives an opinion, and then I counter it. Sometimes we will agree, sometimes we won't. This feature will only apply to basketball since I consider Jack Beav the expert on the subject, and I admittedly have only a cursory knowledge of x/o's, and rely more on my eye and human psychology when analyzing hoops. You can check out JB's blog (http://orangeexpress.wordpress.com/) for recruiting info, post game commentary, etc.

Jack Says:

Mo Cassara had some questions about his Pride going into this season. Hofstra’s leader for the last several years, All-American guard Charles Jenkins is gone. And Cassara is looking to fill all the roles left in the void. The answer for the second year head coach seems to lie with his two 6’5″ senior swing men, Nat Lester and Mike Moore. Lester sat out last year due to injury, so he’s been itching to get back on the court. And he did it in a big way on Friday in Hofstra’s home opener against Long Island University with 33 points in 36 minutes, both game highs. Moore was pegged as the heir apparent to Jenkins at the 2, and he turned in a 23 point, 35 minute effort of his own.

But how much can be read into this game? LIU is a diminutive team in a lower D1 league, the Northeast Conference. They stand to have decent success within that league, but they’re a soft defensive team who looks to run you off the floor. Unless you have Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble, that’s a tough task against bigger teams from bigger conferences. And the Colonial Athletic Association is a bigger, tougher league.

But Hofstra didn’t win with size and interior mismatches. They won with an active match-up zone where their back court mismatches created a ton of TO’s. And they slowed the game down to their pace midway through the first half to take control of a game which looked like it might run away at the start. LIU invited the outside shot by sitting in a zone of their own, and Hofstra killed them with it.

So the Pride comes to Gill planning to slow the game and look for perimeter opportunities on long possessions. They lack interior depth with only 6’7″ junior David Imes and 6’7″ frosh Moussa Kone being spelled occasionally by 6’8″ soph Stephen Nwaukoni. So Cassara will run with a small line-up when he has to do so.

5’9″ junior PG Stevie Mejia is good at times. But he does not use his smaller stature to create on offense or to bother perimeter handles on defense. His handle is loose, and he doesn’t create space for his own shot. And 6’3″ soph Shemiye McClendon is still trying to find his way, though he does seem to possess better quickness and uses his length to make plays on either end with some good hustle.

Other than the two stars, the player to be concerned with is 6’0″ senior Dwan McMillan. He provided an instant energy when he came off the bench on Friday. And Hofstra used that energy to get themselves moving. He’s disruptive in the zone D, and he gets enough space to create on offense. He didn’t shoot much against LIU, but he had Lester and Moore open on cuts and perimeter kicks all night. So why bother?

So these are the games the Beavs have lost in the past which make us as fans scratch our heads. They’re smaller, slower and not nearly as deep. They’re still putting the pieces together, but their coach has them playing tough and smart. And their senior leadership has the ability to pick up the pieces if nothing else is working.

I think this match-up greatly favors the Beavs new style. If we were to sit in a zone on this team, they would take those opportunities and run up some ridiculous numbers on us. But a man D with an interior advantage should make for another quick game. Active feet on the perimeter will invite cuts and dribble entries looking for interior holes. And active hands and feet… oh, and length… will stymie those attempts.

Hofstra will attempt to slow the pace by trying to beat a Beavs man D which forces a pace of its own. If they try to hold the ball for too long, they just won’t be able to do so. Every pass, every dribble is an invitation to take the ball away. And our boys are pretty damn good at doing just that. So a slow start for the Pride will not force the same from the Beavs.

But they are a better team than the previous two teams the Beavs have faced. They will find spells where they will control pace if allowed. When that happens, the Beavs need to learn to dig deep and push through those runs. They need to hustle that extra step on D, and they need to find that extra burst at mid-court when running in transition. Then they need to find the mismatches and the hot hand on offense. And those will be there if they look.

I can see several scenarios where the Pride come into Gill and take this game. They’re skilled enough with the players they have to beat any team who takes them for granted. But this year’s Beavs aren’t taking anyone for granted. They will be all over Hofstra from the tip, and they won’t stop.

At least I hope they won’t stop, because Hofstra is not a team who will lie down just because they’re behind. It will take a complete game effort to win a game which the Beavs should win. I think Hofstra will succeed in slowing the pace a little bit. But I also think this game will be played at the speed the Beavs want to play. We’re not going to see the same 90 point efforts we’ve seen the Beavs fall on in the last two games. If we push 90 tonight, it will be because of a complete game effort and a Hofstra let down. I guess that’s possible, but I don’t expect it. This is a Hofstra team who scored on an alarming percentage of their second half possessions against LIU. So if they get hot, they can win the second half and the game.

I do not expect the home team to allow this. I expect a comfortable win.

Beavs 82 – Pride 67

Angry Says

Having grown up in NJ, I frequently watched Hofstra athletics. While they're never physically gifted (think Wayne Crebet, the prototypical Hoftra athlete), they're always gritty, smart, well-coached, and make up for a lack of speed and size with positioning. The Beavers, meanwhile, use rangy, fast athletes to try and overwhelm their opponent. This game should be a contrast of styles.

My feeling is that Hofstra will play an efficient and deliberate half court offense. The (slow) pace will disrupt the Beavers' tempo, ultimately frustrating them into turnovers and sloppy play. Now that the Beavers are 2-0 and facing a decent opponent, the home attendance should improve. With that, the pressure increases. Are they ready for the semi-prime time?

The Beavers have better athletes and depth, but I'm not convinced they have the mettle to beat an intelligent, gritty opponent. Granted, part of this opinion derives from last year's team, so it is probably not entirely fair. However, part of the opinion comes from knowing OSU athletics never move both linear and upward. Therefore, the smart money says this is a "one step backward" game. Last year I wrote that until I see the Beavs do it on the court, I'd continue to bet against them.

72-64, Hofstra

As always when betting against the Beavs, I hope to be wrong.